You call the season
Tap home win, draw, or away win. Tap again to undo. Every remaining result affects the playoff race.
Scenarios fill unpicked games across both conferences. Existing selections stay locked.
Select teams to win out
Choose teams, then apply to unpicked games. Picked draws/losses stay fixed. Games between selected teams remain unpicked unless already selected.
Paths Remaining gives each open game's home win, draw, and away win equal weight. Model Odds weights them by the Local goals model. Actual results and picks stay fixed in both.
Actual results + picks. Open games do not count. Completed scores are retained; picks use 1–0 wins and 0–0 draws. Model Odds never rank standings.
Lines after 7 and 9 mark direct Round One and playoff qualification cutoffs. Tied positions can cross these lines.
Rules, model & assumptions
2026 MLS: three points per win, one per draw. Each conference's top nine reach the postseason; top seven advance directly to Round One.
Official tiebreaker order: wins, goal differential, goals scored, intraconference head-to-head points and goal differential, disciplinary points, away goal differential, away goals, home goal differential, home goals, coin toss/drawing lots. After a club advances, remaining tied clubs restart. Missing disciplinary totals stop a tie; later steps are not silently substituted. Assumed scores are used for every picked and simulated result.
Unresolved teams share available qualifying places equally. This is an estimate, not an official tiebreaker decision. Exact enumeration is used with up to eight unpicked games; otherwise each probability column samples 12,000 seasons. Maximum approximate 95% sampling margin is ±0.9 percentage points. A sampled zero is not proof of elimination.
The free Local goals model v1 uses completed MLS goals scored/conceded, league home advantage and eight matches of shrinkage toward league averages. Independent Poisson goal distributions produce all three probabilities. It covers every upcoming fixture and recalculates on changed results. It excludes injuries, lineups, transfers and travel. It is not independently validated; probabilities are estimates, not ESPN forecasts or betting odds. Picks do not retrain it.
ESPN's public results endpoint has no guaranteed service level. Game status is a saved snapshot, not a live stream. Final results override saved picks. Visits never import external sports data. Cancelled-season points-per-game qualification requires manual verification and is not enabled in this 34-game configuration.
Independent fan tool · Picks save on this device · W–D–L record order · Shared saved data · Local preview uses no production Cloudflare requests.